UK Chancellor is preparing for a challenging Autumn Budget

A Reuters poll showed most economists are expecting a Bank of England ("BoE") interest rate cut, with mixed UK data causing some to push expectations from August to September. The absence of comments from BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey, due to the election, has deprived the market of crucial signals. Despite a two-month high in the UK's purchasing managers index ("PMI"), driven by new business growth, uncertainty remains over the BoE's decision, with market odds of a rate cut at approximately 40%. Former BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Sushil Wadhwani suggested Labour should allow the BoE to set its inflation target to boost credibility and reduce borrowing costs. Ernst & Young has upgraded its UK economic outlook, predicting 1.1% gross domestic product ("GDP") growth in 2024 and stable inflation near the BoE's 2% target. However, the International Monetary Fund warned that higher growth is needed to avoid a fiscal gap.

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NatWest, Compass Group and Fresnillo

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