Many Happy Returns

Political risk is one of the most unquantifiable aspects of investing — and one of the most consequential. Shifts in regulation, tax and trade policies can shake economies and upend asset prices. Our guest today is economist Larry Hatheway, who argues that markets vastly underestimate the dangers of a second Trump presidency. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Are trade deficits a problem? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today. What's more, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please go to raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

How should you invest when everything is expensive? Stock market valuations are stretched, gold is up 40% on a year ago, and bitcoin has hit an all-time high. With some analysts forecasting a ‘lost decade’ for US stocks, is it time to look elsewhere? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is Warren Buffett holding so much cash? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today. What's more, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please go to raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Gilt yields rose after the Autumn budget as markets absorbed sharp rises in investment, taxes and borrowing. Does Liz Truss’s mini-budget still haunt UK debt markets? And is there a risk that investors will shun UK debt? In today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does public investment ‘crowd out’ or ‘crowd in’ private sector activity? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today. What's more, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please go to raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Investing is an uncertain journey, where chance, risk, and luck are constant companions. But can understanding probability help us live with the unknown? We're joined by Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of 'The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck'. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: ‘Would you want to know when you will die?’ --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

The US Presidential election is less than two weeks away, and the result hangs in the balance. While markets appear calm, a second Trump term could have profound effects on global economies and investments. We discuss how the so-called 'Trump Trade' might impact different assets and sectors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is a strong or weak dollar better? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Investing, at its core, is about postponing consumption in the belief that time is your friend. Yet time has powerful effects on all aspects of markets, magnifying returns, blunting volatility, and warping the very value of money itself. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why can’t we time the market? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Despite record tax revenues, Britain's public services are struggling. So what's gone wrong and how do we fix it? We sit down with Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and author of Follow the Money, to unpick the issues behind Britain's stagnation. We explore the structural challenges facing the UK economy, strategies to revive growth, and which taxes might rise in the upcoming budget. --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

China’s economic boom has slowed as debt, deflation, and demographics weigh on the economy. Beijing belatedly announced a massive stimulus package, cutting interest rates and funnelling money into the stock market. But will it be enough to turn around the world's second biggest economy? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between fiscal and monetary policy? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Europe has suffered relative decline in recent decades, beset by sluggish economic growth, ageing populations, and stagnant wages. Meanwhile, the success of US Big Tech firms has seen America come to dominate global markets. We dig into a new report from the European Union to see if it offers a way to get Europe growing again. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is “productivity”? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Sometimes you need a safe place to stash your cash. Savings accounts, bonds and money market funds are all options but how can you maximise returns? And should you ‘lock in a rate’? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s wrong with Premium Bonds? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Creating a financial plan for your future requires estimating numerous unknown variables. How fast will your investments grow? How much will inflation erode your savings? Will taxes increase? We discuss the most important risks to consider and how to build a reliable plan in an uncertain world. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will care costs ruin the plan? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Mean reversion is one of the most powerful forces in financial markets. When returns, valuation or concentration rise to extreme levels, it’s usually only a matter of time before they come back into line with history. We discuss which aspects of markets are subject to mean reversion, and how long we might have to wait. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If you love mean reversion so much, why do you hate technical analysis? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Asset bubbles are an occasional, inevitable, and sometimes devastating feature of financial markets, making and breaking fortunes along the way. But what is the greatest bubble of all time? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are markets rational? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Nine out of ten people are invested in their employer’s default pension strategy. However, a hands-off approach might not suit your personal circumstances, goals, or risk appetite. So, what should you consider before switching your pension? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it worth filling gaps in your National Insurance record? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Volatility comes with the territory when owning risky assets, yet investors still seek ways to hedge against it—or even profit from it. So, how can you capitalise on market turbulence, and is it worth the effort? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the MOVE index? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Stock markets have been pummelled in recent days — is this is a flash crash or the start of something bigger? And why has fear spread so suddenly? We look at the potential culprits, including weak economic data, central bank surprises, and sky high valuations. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should you buy the dip? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest or Stocks ISA account, make a minimum deposit of £1, and use the promo code "RAMIN" within 10 days of signing up, or use the following link: trading212.com/join/RAMIN When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Pies & Autoinvest is an execution-only service. Not investment advice or portfolio management. Automatic investing refers to executing scheduled deposits. You are responsible for all investment and rebalancing decisions. Free shares can be fractional. Terms and fees apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Copper is integral to the global economy, and its importance will only increase as the world decarbonises its energy infrastructure. Bulls have long argued that supply will fail to keep up with rising demand, driving copper prices higher. So why have prices slumped in recent months? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is ‘Doctor Copper’? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

A botched software update hobbled IT systems around the world, grounding planes and taking TV stations off-air. But it’s not just computer systems that can crash and burn from an innocuous mistake — welcome to the ‘single point of failure’. We discuss underappreciated risks that could devastate your personal finances. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any investment completely safe? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

Last week saw a massive shift in markets, with unloved sectors and smaller stocks outperforming the mega-caps by a record amount. Is Big Tech’s dominance drawing to a close? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are small-cap funds forced to sell their winners? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns

After prices peaked two years ago, higher mortgage costs have caused the market to stall. But with rate cuts on the horizon, is normal service about to be resumed? We discuss how the change of government will affect the housing market. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does building more houses really lower prices? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode. Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Saxo today via: PensionCraft | Saxo (home.saxo) Capital at risk. T&C’s apply. ---Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube ---Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice. Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns