UK inflation drops below 2% for first time since 2021

Last week's UK economic data painted a mixed picture ahead of the Bank of England's (“BoE”) November policy meeting. Inflation has dropped below the 2% target for the first time since 2021, reaching 1.7%, driven by lower energy costs and eased supply chain pressures. Meanwhile, a notable minimum wage hike has underpinned pay growth for low-wage workers, despite broader wage growth moderation. As the labour market is easing, economists increasingly expect a BoE interest rate cut, with markets pricing in a 90% chance of two 0.25% reductions by year-end. Retail sales defied expectations, rising 0.3% in September, driven by strong demand in electronics. While the BoE previously signalled potential rate cuts contingent on inflation trends, the cooling data has solidified expectations of a dovish policy shift in the coming weeks.

The upcoming 30th October UK budget is shaping up to be a pivotal moment, as Rachel Reeves navigates a challenging fiscal landscape with a £22 billion fiscal deficit. To address this deficit, proposals include raising employer national insurance contributions and increasing capital gains taxes on share sales, which could generate significant revenue. However, the proposals have faced pushback from business leaders and investors, with concerns over potential job losses and investment impacts being raised. The recent inflation decline below 2% has reinforced expectations for BoE rate cuts, potentially easing pressure on fiscal policy but also reducing tax revenue from inflation-related income. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund warned the UK of potential market backlash if debt stabilisation efforts fell short, adding urgency to Reeves’ fiscal plans...

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