Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Walker Crips Investment Management Limited

This weekly podcast from the team at Walker Crips Investment Management provides an in depth commentary on the macro economic factors driving global markets, whilst also focusing on individual stocks that are making headlines.

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.


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Bank of England underscores challenges ahead in taming inflation
4d ago
Bank of England underscores challenges ahead in taming inflation
Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden last week underscored the challenges ahead in taming inflation. Bailey, in an interview with The Chronicle, acknowledged the difficulty of the next stage in the fight against inflation. While welcoming recent data, Bailey was sceptical that the 2% target will be achieved any time soon, predicting inflation to stand at around 4% by the end of the first quarter of 2024. Deputy Governor Ramsden, interviewed on Bloomberg TV and at a conference in Hong Kong, emphasised the need for a prolonged restrictive policy to further reduce inflation, projecting no return to target before the end of 2025.....Stocks featured:Rolls-Royce, Dr Martens and Lloyds Banking GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
BoE Governor cautions against premature rate cut discussions
28-11-2023
BoE Governor cautions against premature rate cut discussions
As per a City A.M. poll last week, economists project Bank of England (“BoE”) interest rate cuts between May and August next year, contrasting with market expectations of a move from March. BoE policymakers remain cautious about high wage growth and persistent inflation concerns and view the ongoing Gaza conflict as a significant risk to inflation targets. The potential for an earlier rate cut hinges on economic slowing, influenced by the impact of prior rate tightening....Stocks featured:Sage Group, Cranswick and DiplomaTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Bank of England balancing act: Control inflation and support the economy
21-11-2023
Bank of England balancing act: Control inflation and support the economy
Last week saw the UK October inflation figures witness a significant drop, with the headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) standing at 4.6% year-on-year, below the consensus expectations of 4.8% and a substantial decrease fromthe prior month's 6.7%. Core inflation also moderated to 5.7% versus a consensus estimate of 5.8% and September’s 6.1% reading. The breakdown from the Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) attributed this decline primarily to housing and household services, where the annual rate for CPI was at its lowest level since records began in 1950. The Bank of England (“BOE”) has also been closely monitoring service prices and noted a decrease to 6.6% from 6.9% last month. This, combined with softer labour market data, reinforces expectations that the BOE's rate cycle has peaked, with the possibility of an interest rate cut coming as early as next May. However, The Times reported that money markets have been pricing in rate cuts from as early as March after the slowdown in inflation. BOE policymakers continue to signal caution over rate cut bets, maintaining the narrative that rates will remain higher for longer....Stocks featured:Experian, Ocado Group and HalmaTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
UK economy faces a diverse set of challenges
14-11-2023
UK economy faces a diverse set of challenges
Last week, Bloomberg Economics conducted an analysis revealing that the latest forecasts are indicative of turbulent times ahead for the UK economy, with key indicators suggesting that the country may already be in the midst of a recession. After a period of aggressive monetary tightening and rising unemployment, households are becoming more cautious about spending, posing a significant challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who faces an upcoming election. The Autumn Budget statement on 22 November is under scrutiny, with scepticism from think tanks about the fiscal headroom for tax cuts. While Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey insists it is premature to discuss interest rate cuts, Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledges investors are not being unreasonable in their prediction for rate cuts next summer. Traders are now anticipating interest rate decreases in the region of 0.75% next year, reflecting a notable shift from just 0.3% last month. The contrasting views within the BoE highlight the complexity of navigating economic uncertainties, especially with the threat of inflation and geopolitical tensions....Stocks featured:Marks & Spencer, Associated British Foods and Auto TraderTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Bank of England keeps interest rates steady for second consecutive meeting
07-11-2023
Bank of England keeps interest rates steady for second consecutive meeting
Last week saw the Bank of England (“BoE”) decide to keep interest rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. The BoE's assessment notes that while there have been no significant changes in inflation since September, underlying inflation remains elevated, and the potential for secondary inflation effects to unwind is prolonged. The BoE also highlighted the risk of rising inflation due to Middle East events, despite the current mean projection for inflation to be at 2.2% in two years’ time and 1.9% in three years’ time. The gross domestic product growth forecast for the third quarter of 2023 is now expected to be flat, falling below previous estimates from August of 0.1% growth. The central bank also signalled a 50% chance of a recession by mid-2024. The BoE's forecasts are based on expectations of maintaining the 5.25% base rate until the third quarter 2024. Despite the BoE's recent hawkish stance, market sentiment remains slightly more dovish, with a 25% probability of one more interest rate rise by February 2024 and focus shifting to the timing of the first rate cut. The central bank may have to consider reducing the bank rate faster next year as the economy slows...Stocks featured:Ocado Group, BP and NextTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Borrowing costs surge to their highest point in 25 years
31-10-2023
Borrowing costs surge to their highest point in 25 years
The UK's economic landscape experienced several developments last week. Borrowing costs surged to their highest point in 25 years as the 30-year UK gilt yield reached 5.209%. This increase mirrored global trends as investors worldwide anticipate interest rates will remain at elevated levels for a longer period than first expected. Despite this, a Reuters survey of economists indicated that the Bank of England's rate cycle might have peaked, with expectations of rates remaining on hold until the second quarter of 2024. Inflation risks were acknowledged, though the labour market seemed to stabilise. The majority foresaw the first rate cut, if needed, occurring no earlier than July, with a 0.25% reduction. In parallel, the UK labour market displayed challenges, with the benefit claimant count showing a substantial rise by 20,400, exceeding consensus estimates of a 2,300 increase. Notably, uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey prompted the introduction of a new data series for the unemployment rate by the Office for National Statistics, revealing a 4.2% unemployment rate, up by 0.2% from the previous quarter. Payrolled employment saw a decline and average weekly earnings eased....Stocks featured:Natwest Group, Barclays Initial and International Consolidated Airlines GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
BoE Deputy Governor: Interest rates will persist at higher levels
24-10-2023
BoE Deputy Governor: Interest rates will persist at higher levels
September brought an unexpected twist to the UK inflation narrative, with a surprising increase to 6.7% year-on-year, slightly surpassing consensus expectations of 6.6%. The service sector, which saw increasing prices, was noted as the primary driver. While this may encourage a more hawkish stance within the Bank of England (“BoE”), wage growth indicated signs of slowing, suggesting a potential easing in price pressures by the end of the year. The UK labour market also displayed signs of easing, with a decrease in payrolled employees and vacancies. The Times cited BoE Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe, who anticipates that interest rates will persist at higher levels for the foreseeable future. He noted mixed economic signals, with some indicators slowing, while others suggest that the labour market is beginning to cool. He acknowledged that the economy displayed more resilience in 2022 than previously thought...Stocks featured:Bellway, Rentokil Initial and SegroTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
IMF's World Economic Outlook: Challenges and consequences
17-10-2023
IMF's World Economic Outlook: Challenges and consequences
The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) released its World Economic Outlook last week, which provided a comprehensive perspective on the global economy. While the outlook has shown some balancing since earlier this year, downside risks persist. The report highlighted the limited room for policy errors and delved into the consequences of tightening policies on both inflation and economic activity. The IMF's updated gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 include a weaker growth outlook for the UK compared to its G7 peers in 2024. It is also noteworthy that core inflation is expected to decline gradually, with many economies not returning to target inflation until 2025. This suggests that monetary policy must remain consistent to effectively tackle inflation, while fiscal consolidation is essential to address rising debt.Stocks featured:EasyJet, YouGov and Ashmore GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Halifax data shows signs of stabilisation in the UK housing market
10-10-2023
Halifax data shows signs of stabilisation in the UK housing market
Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party conference speech last week marked the beginning of his election campaign. He outlined a bold agenda, including tax cuts, education reform and a substantial £36 billion investment in northern and midlands transport infrastructure. This investment came as a result of the decision to cancel the northern leg of the HS2 railway project, which stirred mixed reactions and represented a significant shift in political consensus. Sunak also emphasised the Conservative Party's commitment to bold change, introducing a new qualification, the "Advanced British Standard," and promising tax cuts while highlighting the need to control inflation. Additionally, he proposed a phased increase in the legal smoking age....Stocks featured:Aviva, Pennon Group and TescoTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Economists believe the Bank of England has finished raising rates
04-10-2023
Economists believe the Bank of England has finished raising rates
Last week saw mixed signals for the UK economy as the job market displayed signs of cooling. According to an update from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (“REC”), job postings rose by 13.5% in the week ending 17th September but remained below earlier-year averages, with 175,000 new job adverts posted, down from over 200,000 on average earlier in the year. The REC Chief Executive, Neil Carberry, noted that recruitersacross the country have reported a market normalisation as job postings fell from pandemic highs. This cooling labour market was highlighted by the Bank of England (“BoE”) as one of the factors influencing its decision to keep interest rates on hold. Despite these concerns, the UK's economic performance since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has been stronger than previously thought. Data from the Office for National Statistics revealed that the UK's recovery has outpaced that of Germany and France, signalling a faster post-pandemic rebound. This unexpected resilience in the economy has raised questions about the accuracy of official economic forecasts. The Institute for Fiscal Studies cautioned that excessive government borrowing, driven by costly policies introduced by recent chancellors, has undermined faith in these forecasts....Stocks featured:Future, Card Factory and Learning Technologies GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Have UK interest rates peaked?
26-09-2023
Have UK interest rates peaked?
Last week saw inflation and interest rates take centre stage as the latest figures were released. Forecasts at the beginning of the week showed that August inflation was expected to accelerate to 7% from a prior reading of 6.8% in July, with economists attributing the acceleration to rising fuel prices. However, August inflation came in weaker than expected at 6.7% alongside a much softer core inflation figure of 6.2%, compared to a consensusforecast of 6.8%. The Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) said that the largest downward contribution came from food prices and accommodation services, which offset fuel price increases. This inflation reading led to a shift in momentum from consensus expectations for an interest rate hike, as markets priced in less than a 50% probability of a 0.25% rate rise compared to previous forecasts which anticipated there would be a quarter percent increase....Stocks featured:JD Sports Fashion, Dunelm Group and HalmaTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
UK grocery inflation falls to lowest level in a year
19-09-2023
UK grocery inflation falls to lowest level in a year
Last week saw UK equity markets in positive territory as the FTSE 100 closed the week 2.1% higher as markets continue to anticipate that the Bank of England (“BoE”) is approaching the end of its rate tightening cycle. An article published by Bloomberg discussed recent rhetoric from BoE policymakers and noticed that there is a change in tone alongside more clarity on the debate facing the Monetary Policy Committee as it nears the end of the cycle. It was noted that the change in tone may be a sign of the BoE laying the foundations for a pause in interest rate hikes. However, the BoE may find it difficult to justify a pause at this week’s upcoming meeting, due to accelerating wage growth as a result of one-off bonuses and basic pay increases stuck at high levels. This demonstrates the continued resilience within the UK labour market, although unemployment figures are showing gradual signs of increasing as a result of the slowing economy. The latest figures published last week show the UK unemployment rate was 4.3% during the period May to July 2023, compared to 4.2% in the previous quarter...Stocks featured:Renishaw, Kier Group and Associated British FoodsTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
British Chamber of Commerce: UK economy will avoid technical recession
12-09-2023
British Chamber of Commerce: UK economy will avoid technical recession
The British Chamber of Commerce (“BCC”) published updated economic outlook figures last week which highlighted an expectation that the UK economy will avoid a technical recession. However, growth is set to remain weak. Figures state that the UK is expected to have a growth rate of 0.4% for the whole of 2023, dropping to 0.3% in 2024 and rising to 0.7% in 2025. The BCC also revised inflation figures upwards for 2024 to 3% against a previous forecast of 1.5%. This shows that the BCC expects inflation to remain higher for longer, largely as a result of a resilient labour market. The report suggests that although the UK economy will avoid a recession, it will likely feel like one for a lot of households and businesses due to the low growth levels within the economy....Stocks featured:Hilton Food Group, Gamma Communications and Ashtead GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Hope that global economies are nearing end of monetary tightening
05-09-2023
Hope that global economies are nearing end of monetary tightening
Last week saw the FTSE 100 rise 1.6% amid hopes that global economies are nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle. Growth within the UK equity market has been relatively flat since the start of 2023, with the FTSE 100 increasing by approximately 0.5% over the year to date. Persistent high inflation and aggressive monetary tightening by the Bank of England (“BoE”) have been the main factors leading to minimal growth for UK equities. On a valuation basis, the FTSE 100 is trading on a price to earnings ratio of approximately 10.5x, which is at the lower end of statistics over the past two decades, indicating that current UK equity prices could be considered as cheap. This is of no real surprise given the consistent negative sentiment surrounding the outlook for global economies....Stocks featured:Johnson Matthey, Grafton Group and BunzlTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
ONS data suggests inflation may be easing more quickly than expected
29-08-2023
ONS data suggests inflation may be easing more quickly than expected
The UK market experienced a relatively quiet week last week as the FTSE 100 closed approximately 1% higher at 7,339. Inflation and interest rates continue to be the main influencing factors at present with the market continuing to forecast UK interest rates peaking at 6%. The Times reported on the most recent Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) inflation data published last week which suggested that inflation may be easing quicker than initially expected. The ONS calculations showed that core inflation fell to 6.8% in July from 6.9% in June and from a peak of 7.3% in May, compared with original data for July showing that core inflation had held steady at 6.9%. This update is a welcome development; however, services inflation is at multi-decade highs of 7.4% and wages continue to be at record levels, meaning that the updated ONS figures are unlikely to shift near term market or Bank of England (“BOE”) expectations. A Reuters poll of economists also showed that 61 of the 62 economists surveyed expect a 0.25% rate hike in September with a narrow majority thinking that this will be the end of the rate tightening cycle. Out of the 62 economists surveyed, 27 still said that rates could peak at 5.75% and two said 6%, with underlying inflation remaining too high and elevated wage growth continuing to be the most challenging aspect of BOE policy making...Stocks featured:BAE Systems, CRH and JD Sports FashionTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
British wages on track to outpace inflation
22-08-2023
British wages on track to outpace inflation
BAE Systems, the defence, aerospace and security company, announced it has agreed to purchase Ball Corporation’s aerospace business for approximately $5.55 billion in cash. The company said that it entered into a definitive agreement to purchase the unit, which manufactures instruments and sensors for everything from space travel to weather forecasting. The acquisition is expected to add to BAE’s earnings per share and margins in the first year following completion. The unit is also expected to generate approximately $2.2 billion in revenue this year. BAE shares dropped by approximately 5.2% last week as a result of the news with investors viewing the deal as expensive....Stocks featured:BAE Systems, Admiral Group and Balfour BeattyTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Bank of England forecasts inflation will decline to 5% by end of year
15-08-2023
Bank of England forecasts inflation will decline to 5% by end of year
Bank of England (“BoE”) chief economist, Huw Pill, said last week that UK inflation remains too high and too persistent, especially as food prices may not decline in the short term. Pill stated that food price inflation may decline to 10% this year, but actual disinflation in food prices may not occur for some time after this. The BoE now forecasts that inflation will decline to 5% by the end of this year, but will not drop to the 2% target until the second quarter of 2025. Pill commented that higher and persistent inflation in the UK is mostly to do with higher imported goods prices and stressed that much of the monetary policy tightening has yet to impact the economy. However, there are signs that recent rate rises are working through the economy as inflation is falling and the labour market is cooling. The BoE remains committed to monitoring economic data and will continue with monetary tightening until it sees a further slowdown in inflation, but there is increasing optimism that we may be approaching the pivot point after fourteen consecutive rate rises...Stocks featured:Abrdn, Savills and TI Fluid SystemsTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
BoE raise rates again and expect them stay higher for longer
08-08-2023
BoE raise rates again and expect them stay higher for longer
BAE Systems, a defence, aerospace, and security company, saw its share price increase by approximately 8.7% last week after announcing first half results which beat market expectations. The company also raised its guidance for full year sales, underlying Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT), Earnings Per Share (EPS) and free cash flow. The dividend also increased by 11% when compared to last year alongside an approved further share buyback program of up to £1.5 billion. This program is expected to roll-on after completion of the current buyback program and conclude within three years of its commencement... Stocks featured:BAE Systems, ConvaTec Group Plc and Greggs Plc  To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
BoE should slow the pace of rate increases after better than expected inflation data
01-08-2023
BoE should slow the pace of rate increases after better than expected inflation data
Ocado Plc, the UK based technology-led software and robotics platform, features again in this week's market commentary as its share price surged approximately 42.1% last week. The company has received a wave of positive news recently including rumours of a potential bid from Amazon, better than expected earnings and a positive settlement hearing which have all contributed to the strong share price performance. The £200 million settlement appears to have reassured investors and prospective partners of the continued unique access to Ocado’s technology and patent protection... Stocks featured:Ocado Plc, Croda International Plc and Centrica Plc  To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
FTSE 100 rallies on better-than-expected UK inflation figures for June
25-07-2023
FTSE 100 rallies on better-than-expected UK inflation figures for June
Ocado Group, the UK based technology-led software and robotics platform business, saw its share price soar by approximately 15% after announcing first half earnings. One of the main positive takeaways from the results was that Ocado has been delivering on its promise of reducing its cash burn. The company also announced that group revenue grew by 9% year on year, with its Technology Solutions division seeing revenue increase by 59% year on year. Investors viewed this announcement positively and believe that the company is well positioned to deliver on its long-term objectives...Stocks featured:Ocado Group, Wise and PersimmonTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.