A special edition of Amundi’s monthly Convictions podcast focusing on the outlook for developed markets in 2024. The theme of renewed global disorder has been a topic of conversation for some years, emerging from a convergence of ideological, economic, political and technological transitions. These transitions spread uncertainty on a global scale and have a knock-on effect on how and when policymakers react. 2024 will be a year of transition, of turning tides, in growth, inflation and monetary policy.    Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, take a closer look at Amundi’s outlook for 2024 and what this new global disorder means for markets and investments. What are the main expectations for 2024 in terms of growth across the main regions? When should we expect central banks to start cutting rates? They also discuss some of the main investment risks from the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and its implications for asset allocation. They finish by taking broader look at some of the investment opportunities that may arise from longer term themes.

This emerging markets outlook special edition looks ahead to 2024. While a slowdown is expected in developed markets, emerging markets (EM) are likely to prove more resilient next year with the growth premium over developed markets continuing to widen.  Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s Group Chief Investment Officer and Yerlan Syzdykov, Global Head of Emerging Markets at Amundi to find out what’s in store and why 2024 is expected to be a year of two halves for emerging markets. They discuss what the forecasts might mean for EM equities, hard and local currency fixed income and FX. They take a closer look at the prospects for the Asian superpowers of China and India and consider which regions and countries might benefit or lose out amid increased global fragmentation and the critical issue of energy transition.

Against the backdrop of recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sat down earlier this week to discuss the big themes that are dominating markets. In addition to the ongoing geopolitical risks, they spoke in depth about recession concerns as well as how much they expect the U.S. and European economies to slow. This month’s podcast finishes with a look at the outlook for fixed income and equities and some of the challenges for which investors need to watch out.  Discover more on the article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-november-2023

Payment habits have evolved dramatically over the last few decades. The use of cash has been shrinking for some time, but this phenomenon was rapidly accelerated by the Covid crisis. In parallel, technological advances have seen the use of digital currencies become more popular amongst consumers and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin become household names. In response to this dramatic rise in the use of decentralised money, many central banks have been exploring the launch of their own central bank digital currencies (CBDC). Join Swaha Pattanaik and Tristan Perrier, Macroeconomist & Investment Insights Specialist with the Amundi Investment Institute, as they delve into the world of CBDCs. What are they exactly and why are they being developed? They take a closer look at the development of CBDCs around the world and examine some of the risks and implications of this type of digital currency, as well as their potential benefits.    Discover CBDCs: where do the projects and debates stand? https://research-center.amundi.com/article/cbdcs-where-do-project-and-debate-stand

Autumn made a hasty arrival to Europe in mid-September and it was accompanied by a multitude of monetary policy meetings. The current tightening cycle has seen plenty of interest rate hikes. But this new round of meetings show how central banks appear undecided on their next steps in light of the mixed signals coming from their economies. What will this cautious stance from central banks mean for the world’s economies?  Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sat down earlier this week to discuss the expectations for growth in major economies in the coming months. They talk about the possible implications of the recent spike in energy prices and what we should expect for interest rate policies around the world for the rest of the year. This month’s episode finishes with a look at the outlook for fixed income and equities and some of the challenges for which investors need to watch out.  Discover more on the article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-october-2023

For many, September has a back to school feel about it after a long break and is often the chance for a bit of a refresh. This summer, markets certainly weren’t on holiday, as August saw corrections and volatility, whilst there was also further softening in economic data, particularly in Europe and China.  Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch-up to discuss the key economic developments that emerged over the summer and the outlook for the next few months. How will policymakers react as they continue to balance fighting inflation against economic slowdown? Is the resilience seen in the US likely to continue and what are the growth and inflation expectations for the major global economies? They also examine what these forecasts would imply for portfolios across the different asset classes.  Discover more on the article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-september-2023

Whilst fashion trends regularly make come-backs, revivals in economic trends are a lot less frequent. The double-digit inflation rates seen over the past two years have left many wondering whether other hallmarks of the 1970s are also due for a return and what can be learnt from previous missteps as we transition to a new economic model.  Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Tristan Perrier, Macroeconomist & Investment Insights Specialist with the Amundi Institute, as he reflects on some of the similarities and the differences between the two periods and examines some of the risks faced as policymakers try to bring inflation back to target. They also discuss how the current period of high inflation could pave the way for a transition in a new direction and look forward to what a structurally higher level of inflation could mean for monetary and fiscal policy. Finally, they review the potential long and short term investment implications of these different economic scenarios.   Discover 2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2020s-vs-1970s-echoes-not-replay

After months of rising rates, there could be good news for central banks as we start to see signs that inflation is finally cooling down.     Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, discuss the main trends impacting global monetary policy cycle, taking a closer look at the desynchronisation between Developed and Emerging Markets. Discover the Global Investment Views - August 2023 article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-june-2023">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-august-2023  -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

Geopolitics has become an ever increasing concern for financial markets over the past few years. Fractures and shifts in alliances are transforming the global economy and trade relationships.    Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Anna Rosenberg, Amundi’s Head of Geopolitics, and Francesco Sandrini, Amundi’s Head of Multi-Asset Strategies to discuss whether we’ve now reached a “new normal” and what some of the implications will be for investment flows both now and in the years ahead. They take a closer look at the pivotal relationship between the world’s two biggest economies, the USA and China, and examine how trade has evolved, particularly in terms of exploiting natural resources. Find out which sectors and geographies will be most impacted by the evolving relationships and who will be the overall winners and losers in this geopolitical struggle. Discover Geopolitical shifts shaping investments article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/geopolitical-shifts-and-investment-implications

This month’s episode is a special focus on the macro-economic outlook and investment themes for 2023 and beyond. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, discuss Amundi’s expectations for growth and inflation for the coming months and what this might mean for central bank monetary policy.      Monica also shares some of the things featuring on her crowded Wall of Worries this month, and talks about some of the areas and asset classes to watch in terms of investment opportunities in the rest of the year.

2022 was a year to forget for emerging markets, but so far 2023 has brought more optimism that emerging markets may be making a comeback.     Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Alessia Berardi, Amundi’s Head of Emerging Markets Research, to find out what she expects in terms of growth across the emerging regions and why they generally seem to be in better shape than developed markets this year. They take a closer look at the different asset classes and where investors might find value, as well as some of the risk factors to look out for. They also discuss the longer-term outlook for India and whether it can fulfil its growth potential. Discover The emerging market comeback article: https://research-center.amundi.com/emerging-market-comeback

Washington remains firmly in the spotlight this month as the US debt ceiling negotiations remain at a deadlock. While a deal is expected sooner or later, what damage will be done in the meantime, especially as the economy in the United States had already been expected to slow?    Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, for their regular catch up on the markets and asset allocation trends as they look more closely at the themes driving the markets this month and where investors should be focusing their attention in the weeks to come. Discover the Global Investment Views - June 2023 article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-may-2023">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-june-2023  -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

The turmoil of March may be behind us, but market signals are conflicted about what comes next. A disconnect has appeared as bond markets look to price in a recession in the US, whilst on the equity side earnings expectations still appear overly optimistic. Against this back-drop, investors are wise to keep plotting a cautious course.      Swaha Pattanaik caught up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, after her return from the IMF Spring Meetings, to find out what the mood in Washington was like and how it compares to Amundi’s own views on the outlook for global economies over the coming months. Discover the Global Investment Views - May 2023 article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-april-2023">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-may-2023   -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

The banking turmoil of the past month saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States and the 160-year old Credit Suisse being taken over by rival UBS. While the big market swings triggered by these events have now subsided, economic scars appear inevitable.      Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro Economics, to find out what has changed and why these events have tipped the balance towards a gloomier outlook in the US and a more protracted recession. They discuss what the impact on economic growth and monetary policy in the US might be and how this can have a knock-on effect on the labour market. They also turn their attention to Europe and the continued focus on the ECB’s fight against inflation. Discover the Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/financial-stability-concerns-tip-balance-towards-us-recession

Markets were shaken out of complacency in March, as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, wiftly followed by Credit Suisse in Europe, sounded alarm bells and triggered a sudden repricing of core yields as bond volatility reached levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis.      Prompt reaction from key central banks showed they remember the lessons of past crises, but this time added concerns over growth and inflation make the challenge they face more difficult. How much of the unease over the banking sector is justified and we looking at a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis?     Swaha Pattanaik catches up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, for their monthly discussion on what’s been going on in the markets. This month’s focus inevitably starts with the events of the past two weeks as we find out what this means for growth and interest rate expectations more broadly. They also explore which regions and asset classes investors should be focusing on at the moment. Discover the Global Investment Views - April 2023 article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-april-2023  -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

It’s still early in 2023, but the markets have been broadly moving higher. What’s been driving the recent rally and how strong are its foundations?     Swaha Pattanaik caught up last week with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to take a closer look at the bond and equity markets and the reasons why investors should show caution at this time. Discover the Global Investment Views - March 2023 article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-march-2023   -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical, macroeconomic, and market fallouts continue to reverberate around the globe. Whilst these have been most apparent in Europe due to its close ties to Russia, the conflict has had ongoing implications worldwide and has put existing trade-frictions under further pressure.      Swaha Pattanaik talks to Mahmood Pradhan, head of global macroeconomics at the Amundi Institute, to discuss some of the likely developments in the conflict over the short and medium term, how Europe has been reshaped by the crisis and the wider impact on global supply chains and globalisation as a whole. Discover the A year of war in Ukraine: accelerating the energy transition and fragmentation article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/year-war-ukraine-accelerating-energy-transition-and-fragmentation  -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

Risky assets got off to a bumper start at the beginning of 2023, helped by more positive expectations for China following their reopening and hopes that the economic outlook in Europe might prove more resilient than previously thought. But how likely is it that this will last and could this be the start of a new positive cycle? Swaha Pattanaik talks to Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to look at some of the big market trends investors should be looking out for over the next few months as they try to shed some light on what might happen next. Discover the Global Investment Views - February 2023 article:  https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-december-2022  "> https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-february-2023   -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

Biodiversity is all around us. It underpins not only our economy but also our very existence. Yet we are only in the early stages of understanding how essential a healthy environment is to a stable and well-functioning society. While climate change has long been capturing the headlines, the importance of biodiversity is now also coming to the fore, especially as it is recognised that climate change and biodiversity loss are inherently linked.      In this podcast, we examine why biodiversity decline represents not only a threat to our society as a whole, but also a significant risk to individual businesses. We also look at some of the obstacles that need to be overcome and the essential role investors play in encouraging action on biodiversity.  Discover the Biodiversity loss – The role of investment in protecting Earth’s crucial biodiversity articles: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/biodiversity-it-s-time-protect-our-only-home-ndeg1-it-time-sound-alarm-biodiversity https://research-center.amundi.com/article/biodiversity-it-s-time-protect-our-only-home-ndeg2-addressing-biodiversity-loss-call-action   https://research-center.amundi.com/article/esg-thema-10-there-no-place-earth-how-investors-can-address-biodiversity-loss

2022 has been a tough year for investors, as both bonds and equities experienced significant repricing as the environment of rising interest rates, persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical conflicts hit investor confidence. For bonds in particular, 2022 was their worst annual performance in a century. All this means that hopes for some respite in the near future are high. In 2023, inflation and Central Bank responses to this will continue to dominate investor agenda, alongside concerns over the energy crisis in Europe, recovery in China and global geopolitical tensions.   Swaha Pattanaik talks Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to explore some of the key themes to look out for in 2023 and whether investors finally have some reasons to be positive. Discover the 2023 Investment Outlook - Some light for investors after the storm article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2023-investment-outlook-some-light-investors-after-storm">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2023-investment-outlook-some-light-investors-after-storm -------------------------------  DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.