The Final Bell

The latest WASDE report brought some mixed reactions, with overall production numbers closely aligning with expectations but a few regional surprises in state-level yields. The corn balance sheet reflected steady demand but highlighted some adjustments in exports and feed usage, keeping stocks relatively tight. Soybean numbers appeared slightly more bullish, with yields revised in key states, reinforcing a tighter supply outlook. The market response was interesting—corn remained stable, while soybeans saw an uptick, possibly fueled by traders' positioning ahead of global demand cues. Technically, both corn and soybean markets show resilience, with soybeans holding key support levels and corn testing resistance, suggesting some upward potential in the short term if demand holds strong.

This week, markets are reacting to shifting trade dynamics amid "Trump Trades" and expectations around a potential Fed interest rate cut, which could provide support across various sectors. Ahead of the WASDE report, there's heightened anticipation, particularly in the soybean complex, where prices have shown explosive movement. Meanwhile, cattle markets are finding solid support, suggesting resilience even as other factors create volatility. These combined influences are keeping traders on edge, awaiting clarity from upcoming reports and policy shifts.

This week, markets are digesting the impact of recent election results, with many eyes on how these outcomes might shape future policies. In agriculture, the StoneX Customer Harvest Survey is offering fresh insights into yield expectations, which could show market sentiment ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meeting adds another layer of anticipation as investors await signals on the direction of interest rates. Consumer sentiment continues to be a key focus, with recent reports hinting at how economic uncertainty might influence spending patterns and market movement in the coming months.

This week, the markets reflect an election-season tone, with overall quiet trade as investors and traders look for clearer signals. Key events loom ahead, with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday expected to set the tone for interest rates, while Friday’s WASDE report will provide crucial insights for agricultural markets. Meanwhile, discussions with China could impact trade relations and market sentiment. In the cattle market, we’re seeing a notable shift, potentially driven by fluctuating consumer confidence. As these factors unfold, the market remains on edge, anticipating moves that could set the stage for the remainder of the season.

The market feels the tension of election season, with much of the trade remaining quiet as it watches for signals. While crude oil has seen some action, grains are capturing attention, potentially setting the stage for tomorrow’s market shifts. With key reports like the WASDE and updates from the Federal Reserve on the horizon, traders are also monitoring developments in China and assessing the latest progress out of South America. In the livestock sector, fat cattle movement continues to trend, though technical uncertainties in live cattle keep market watchers cautious.

The main highlight this week has been export activity, especially with Mexico's demand for corn. On Friday, they purchased 716 million tons of old-crop (OC) corn from the U.S., underscoring their ongoing need for future imports. Drought remains a concern in several regions, though there are signs of potential replenishment in some areas. Fall basis prices are also influencing decisions as we move into the November 1 grain marketing window, which is an important date for managing grain contracts and forecasting the market's direction.

As we head into the end of the month, markets are keeping an eye on several key developments, starting with election prep in the U.S., which could bring more volatility across agricultural and financial markets. A potential divergence in the soybean complex is also taking shape; factors like South American weather and Chinese demand may pull soybean oil and meal prices in different directions, creating varied impacts within the broader soybean market. Meanwhile, cattle contracts are seeing intense trading activity, with "fireworks" as traders position themselves ahead of the month's close. The cattle market has been dynamic, with price fluctuations driven by concerns over cattle supplies, packer demand, and shifting trade expectations

The wheat market is facing some unique pressures as Russia's export taxes and variable weather continue to impact trade flows. In Brazil, weather remains a central focus as growers look for favorable conditions to support crop progress. Outside markets, including energy, are adding another layer of volatility, especially with ongoing global shifts in supply and demand. With elections around the corner, political uncertainty is weighing on market sentiment. Meanwhile, in the livestock sector, pork prices are being closely watched, with recent fluctuations adding to the complexity of market planning.

Jeff Peterson of Heartland Farm Partners recaps the factors that shaped today's market activity. Corn closed 1 to 4 cents lower. Soybeans closed 10 to 13 cents lower. Wheat closed mostly 10 cents lower. All three livestock complexes closed higher. - Why do you think corn and soybeans are starting the week of weaker? - Are the funds playing much of a role in the corn and soybean markets at this time? - Do you think we will continue to see the strong corn and soybean export sales like we had last week? - How were export inspections this morning? - What is the latest on the Mississippi river level? - What would it take to get corn and soybean prices to move higher from here? - How do you think corn and soybean future’s spread trade from here? - What do you think will happen to corn and soybean basis levels?

Export sales have been strong this week for both corn and soybeans, providing some support to the market. All eyes are on the upcoming Chinese stimulus meeting in early November, which could influence demand and pricing. However, uncertainty remains regarding South American crop outcomes, as well as the impact of dry conditions in the U.S.—though it may still be too early to raise alarms on that front. Politics continue to weigh on the ag sector, while depressed soybean prices add additional pressure. Meanwhile, balance sheets for corn and beans are increasing, adding further complexity to market dynamics.

Export sales are in focus, while election jitters are starting to impact market sentiment. Soybeans faced some pressure, with key factors dragging the market down. There's still a question of what's not supporting broader trade action. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for tomorrow’s Cattle on Feed report, and winter wheat is being eyed for pasture use as ranchers look for options in the face of evolving market conditions.

The basis continues to firm up as farm selling picks up momentum, contributing to market activity. Reinflation is becoming a significant part of the equation, influencing various sectors. In Brazil, much-needed rain is finally arriving, which is beneficial for crops. Export demand remains steady, but political uncertainties are adding a layer of complexity to the market. Dryness in key wheat-growing regions of Russia is causing concern, while the cattle market experienced a sell-off, leading to added pressure on producers.

The market saw positive action in both corn and beans, with corn pushing higher on the back of large option spreads. Export demand for grains remains strong, helping to support the upward momentum. However, winter wheat planting is facing some delays, causing concern in the wheat market. Meanwhile, cattle traders are eagerly awaiting the Cattle on Feed (COF) report, which could further influence market direction. The cattle market has shown higher movement, bolstered by commercial buying activity, but the industry is cautious, waiting for more data before making bigger moves.

The corn and soybean markets are currently signaling a mixed story, with export levels remaining a key focus, particularly as concerns grow around the low Mississippi River levels impacting grain shipments. Funds have had a noticeable effect on market volatility, influencing price movement, especially in soybeans. Exports for both corn and soybeans are progressing but face challenges from logistical issues. In South America, weather patterns and planting progress will be closely watched, with favorable conditions potentially altering global supply expectations. Technically, the corn market shows some weakness, while soybeans present a more stable outlook. This may be an ideal time to evaluate and potentially adjust marketing plans, particularly with technical factors and global weather conditions playing a significant role in upcoming price movement.

Heather Ramsey with the ARC Group based in Lincoln recaps the factors that influenced today's negative grain trade. Topics today: - Market attitude - Overnights vs. day session - Hedge funds and the election - Rain in North and South America - Fundamentals get no attention

Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics recaps the factors that influenced today's trading. Topics today: - Feeling like a weather market - Longevity of strength - Funds position - Metals, energies, currency - Livestock quieter today

Politics and upcoming elections are adding uncertainty to the markets, with fiscal policy changes in China also weighing heavily on sentiment. However, big export announcements for corn and soybeans this morning provided a much-needed boost to the grain trade. Rains in Brazil are aiding crop conditions, while U.S. weather continues to be a critical factor driving market movements. The fast harvest pace in the U.S. is keeping pressure on prices as supply builds, but traders are keeping a close eye on how these various factors will shape the market in the coming weeks.

The NOPPA crush numbers came in strong, but corn inspections were disappointing, adding pressure to the grain market. A train derailment in Mexico created additional logistical concerns, while rains in South America are improving crop conditions there. Traders are now watching to see if the Midwest will get much-needed rainfall, with ongoing concerns about river levels impacting transport. Meanwhile, the cattle market saw a drop, further contributing to the cautious tone across agricultural markets this week.

With the Monday holiday trade, there wasn’t a lot of fresh news to kick things off. The market felt the effects of a long harvest weekend, with some chatter about potential rain next week that could impact progress. Chinese stimulus measures were also a topic of conversation, adding a bit of uncertainty to the global outlook. Feeder cattle saw some movement, and spreads were a key focus for traders as the market looks for direction heading into the next week.

The WASDE report today didn’t bring any major surprises, but there were a few key takeaways worth noting. Corn yield numbers came in close to expectations, though some believe they could still be adjusted in future reports. Soybean yield estimates also appeared reasonable, but the market will keep a close eye on how weather impacts final numbers. U.S. ending stocks were in line with projections, though global ending stocks raised a few eyebrows, particularly with ongoing challenges in key growing regions. Looking ahead, it’s possible we’ll see adjustments in future reports as harvest progresses. As for marketing plans, now might be a good time to review and make any necessary tweaks based on today's data and potential future changes.